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The loss of the exchange rate as an independent policy instrument implied by EMU has spurred calls for an insurance scheme as a buffer against temporary, asymmetric shocks to national income. We study the potential properties of such a system using historical data from the 12 EC economies. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661673
This Paper uses multi-step forecasting models at horizons of 4 and 8 quarters to forecast and explain the growth of real per capita US GDP. In the modeling strategy, a priori sign restrictions play an important role. They are imposed not on impulse response functions but directly on the reduced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067520
The Paper explores how fiscal policy can be made both more disciplined and more counter-cyclical. It first examines whether the decline of public debts observed in the OECD area during the 1990s can be explained either by less activism or by a priority towards consolidation. It then argues that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791671
We derive a set of stylized facts on the effects of non-systematic fiscal policy in the four largest countries of the Euro area, and discuss their implications for the fiscal policy coordination debate, for the effectiveness of fiscal shocks in stabilizing the economies, and for the interaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498152
After a brief review of classical, Keynesian, New Classical and New Keynesian theories of macroeconomic policy, we assess whether New Keynesian Economics captures the quintessential features stressed by JM Keynes. Particular attention is paid to Keynesian features omitted in New Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504355
This paper estimates the impact on the US economy of four types of uncertainty about (i) government spending, (ii) tax changes, (iii) public debt sustainability and (iv) monetary policy. Following a one standard deviation shock, uncertainty about debt sustainability has the largest and most...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084234
We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study bank risk and sovereign risk interdependence in the Euro Area. We find that an increase in capital investment risk shock, results in a considerably deeper recession when sovereign risk is also present. This result has three...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201352
We consider a constant returns to scale, one sector economy with segmented asset markets, encompassing both the Woodford (1986) and overlapping generations models. We analyze the role of public spending, financed by (labour or capital) income and consumption taxation, on the emergence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067432
This Paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067459
This paper analyses and forecasts annual time series of aggregate real income per head in the United States. The approach integrates elements from recent univariate time-series analyses with multi-equation macromodels in which policy feedback rules have been endogenized. The main conclusions are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661731