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standard of living, then what price index should the account be indexed to? This paper constructs a dynamic price index (DPI …) that answers this question. Unlike the existing theory on price indices (which is static and certain), the DPI measures the … to define this price index and study its theoretical properties. The DPI: is homogeneous of degree 1 with respect to all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504651
This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods’ prices to separate them into three components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, aggregate relative-price changes, and changes in the unit of account. The model identifies a measure of “pure”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067604
In this Paper we propose an alternative to traditional hedonics for estimating new multiunit housing inflation, adjusting for quality changes. By relying on the within-site variation we control in a very general way for unobserved housing characteristics using site-specific effects. Precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114200
This paper reexamines U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We employ dynamic factor analysis as an alternative to reconstructed national accounts. We find a remarkable volatility increase across World War I, which is reversed after World War II. While we can generate evidence of postwar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504432
index of money market pressure to identify banking crises. We define banking crises as periods in which there is excessive … desirable, and also possible, to depend on a more objective index of money market pressure rather than market events to identify … the index, changes in central bank funds to bank deposits ratio and changes in short-term real interest rate, are equally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497741
We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497901
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is based on the generalized dynamic factor model proposed in Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2000), and takes advantage of the information on the dynamic covariance structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661541
. To do so we propose a new methodology for the construction of index numbers in panel data sets. Our method is based on an … optimal approach by which we choose the `best' set index numbers by minimizing the expected estimation error subject to some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661983
Index tracking requires building a portfolio of stocks (a replica) whose behaviour is as close as possible to that of a … given stock index. Typically, much fewer stocks should appear in the replica than in the index, and there should be no low … used methods for index tracking. These are based on the in-sample minimization of a loss function, but do not take into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666958
small samples. We use our model to construct an index of the state of the economy for the European currency area. Such an … index is defined as the common component of real GDP within a model including several macroeconomic variables for each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667125