fluctuations are poorly related to trade and financial linkages. Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not …

of trade impacting on rich countries' business cycles is thus mitigated, and its direct impact lessened. The structure of …

intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in financial assets, specialization and business cycles …) Simultaneity is important, as both trade and financial openness have a direct and an indirect effect on cycles of synchronization … sizeable effect on business cycles, above and beyond their reflection of intra-industry trade and of openness to goods and …

This paper provides novel evidence on the determinants of the synchronization in business cycles. I find trade has …

We present a theory of spatial development. A continuum of locations in a geographic area choose each period how much … to innovate (if at all) in manufacturing and services. Locations can trade subject to transport costs and technology … diffuses spatially across locations. The result is an endogenous growth theory that can shed light on the link between the …

The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) technique provides a forecast-based method of decomposing a variable such as output, into …

-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … prices, forecasts based on AR and ARMA models, and the no-change forecast. In addition, these VAR models have consistently … forecasters to interpret their oil price forecast in light of economic models and to evaluate its sensitivity to alternative …

much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and … evaluating the risks underlying these forecasts. We show how policy-relevant forecast scenarios can be constructed from recently … to these scenarios affect the upside and downside risks embodied in the baseline real-time oil price forecast. Such risk …