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We discuss the extent to which the expectation of a rare event, not present in the usual post-war sample data, but not rationally excludable from the set of possibilities – the peso problem – can affect the behaviour of rational agents and the characteristics of market equilibrium. To that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124369
Macroeconomic models with financial frictions typically imply that the excess return on a well-diversified portfolio of corporate bonds is close to zero. In contrast, the empirical finance literature documents large and time-varying risk premia in the corporate bond market (the "credit spread...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854475
This article analyzes the implications of money illusion for investor behavior and asset prices in a securities market economy with inflationary fluctuations. We provide a belief-based formulation of money illusion which accounts for the systematic mistakes in evaluating real and nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005048554
Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market incompleteness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084682
We study a production economy with multiple sectors financed by issuing securities to agents who face capital constraints. Binding capital constraints propagate business cycles, and a reduction of the interest rate can increase the required return of high-haircut assets since it can increase the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642875
Economic decisions such as occupational and entrepreneurial choices may violate true comparative advantage when economic agents are uncertain about which activity best matches their talents. If relative performance varies over the business cycle (for instance, if downturns affect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504434
We measure the amount of income insurance and cross-sectional consumption smoothing (lending and borrowing) achieved within subgroups of states, such as regions or clubs, e.g. the club of rich states. We find that there is as much income insurance between, as well as within, regions. By...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504778
The recovery from the last recession has been slower than any other recovery in the post-WWII period both in the US and in many other advanced economies. There is an ongoing debate around the causes of such a slow recovery. Are there any structural factors that are constraining the speed of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084132
Trade links imply that business cycle fluctuations are transmitted to trade partners. To the extent that fiscal policy can mitigate business cycle fluctuations this implies that there are international interdependencies in stabilization policies. We analyse the role of fiscal policy in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124478
While this is typically ignored, the properties of the stochastic process followed by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper pursues two approaches to modelling aggregate consumption dynamics and to measuring how much society dislikes fluctuations,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136677