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The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap estimates. It turns out that, despite some difference across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468583

The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468648

The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts

Ehrmann, Michael; Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008458290

Macroprudential policy and central bank communication

Born, Benjamin; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

supervision. Central bank communication will constitute a central policy tool for that purpose. The paper asks how such … communication will affect financial markets, exploiting the fact that many central banks have had some financial stability role in … times, but can have a substantially larger effect during periods of financial stress. Moreover, central bank communication …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692311

Monetary Policy in the Media

Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

private agents to be successful--and much of this communication is channeled through the media. This is especially true for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854477

The Roles of Monetary Policy in the Process of Economic Reform in Eastern Europe

Bofinger, Peter - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990

The first part of the paper analyzes the inflationary risks associated with price liberalization, the welfare costs of inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the low credibility of stabilization policies and a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123602

Central Bank Communication and Output Stabilization

Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Hoeberichts, Marco; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

Some central banks have a reputation for being secretive. A justification for this behaviour that we find in the literature is that being transparent about operations and beliefs hinders the central bank in achieving the best outcome. In other words, a central bank needs flexibility and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124006

Euro-Area and US Banks Behavior, and ECB-Fed Monetary Policies during the Global Financial Crisis: A Comparison

Cukierman, Alex - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

This paper compares the behavior of Euro-Area (EA) banks’ credit and reserves with those of US banks following respective major crisis triggers (Lehman’s collapse in the US and the 2009 admission by Papandreou, that Greece’s deficit was substantially higher than previously believed, in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011096105

Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area

Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

This paper uses a data-set including time series data on macroeconomic variables, loans, deposits and interest rates for the euro area in order to study the features of financial intermediation over the business cycle. We find that stylized facts for aggregate monetary and real variables are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083763

Cross-Border Liquidity, Relationships and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area Interbank Crisis

Abbassi, Puriya; Bräuning, Falk; Fecht, Falko; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

We analyze the impact of financial crises and monetary policy on the supply of wholesale funding liquidity, and also on the compositional supply effects through cross-border and relationship lending. For empirical identification, we draw on the proprietary bank-to-bank European interbank dataset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196038