Showing 1 - 10 of 216
misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar … more ‘extractive’ institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises … appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136626
.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive … and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114221
What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667076
This paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock prices. We stick as close as possible to the original Meese-Rogoff sample and methodology. Just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124429
Prominent economic theories have emphasized the role of commonly held perceptions and expectations for determining macroeconomic outcomes. A key empirical question is how such collectively held beliefs are formed. We use the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment. We provide direct evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791748
Some central banks have a reputation for being secretive. A justification for this behaviour that we find in the literature is that being transparent about operations and beliefs hinders the central bank in achieving the best outcome. In other words, a central bank needs flexibility and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124006
Psychological factors, market sentiments, and shifts in beliefs are believed by many to play a nontrivial role in inducing and amplifying economic fluctuations. Yet, these forces are rarely considered in macroeconomic models. This paper provides an attempt to evaluate the empirical role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468669
inflation volatility, we unwind one of Sargent's simplifications and allow the monetary authority to react to some of the shocks … were also persuaded to stop using changes in inflation to offset shocks. Inflation and inflation volatility therefore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504556
volatility. This paper focuses on extreme correlation, that is to say the correlation between returns in either the negative or … positive tail of the multivariate distribution. Using ‘extreme value theory’ to model the multivariate distribution tails, we … not for the positive tail. We also find that correlation is not related to market volatility per se but to the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504611
and volatility in contrast to the exogenously assumed constant mean and volatility in many credit risk models. We consider … attenuated (amplified) market volatility and risk premium, but the market value is always higher in economic downturns, and lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788927