This paper provides a critical survey of the methods employed to model the effects of risk in econometric models. Most of the popular methods are shown to suffer from errors-in-variables bias, and an instrumental variable method is suggested to overcome this problem. The technique exploits the...

In the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally. The method is an extension of the errors-in-variables method of McCallum and Wickens. As a by-product some of Pagan's results on the...

In many economic applications, observations are naturally categorized into mutually exclusive and exhaustive groups. For example, individuals can be classified into cohorts and workers are employees of a particular firm. Grouping models are widely used in economics -- for example, cohort models...

We analyse the effects of government sponsored training for the unemployed conducted during East German transition. For the microeconometric analysis, we use a new, large and informative administrative database that allows us to use matching methods to reduce potential selection bias, to study...

Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...

The economics literature provides ample evidence that higher corruption discourages FDI inflows. In this paper we address, for the first time in the literature in a systematic way, the exact reverse link, i.e., the empirical effect of FDI inflows on corruption. We present a simple model that...

We analyse the impact on schooling outcomes of growing up in a family headed by a single mother. Growing up in a non-intact family in Germany is associated with worse outcomes in models that do not control for possible correlations between common unobserved determinants of family structure and...

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

This paper exploits an unusual policy reform that had the effect of reducing the direct cost of schooling in Ireland in the late 1960’s. This gave rise to an increased level of schooling but with effects that vary substantially across family background. This interaction of educational reform...

This article attempts a formal analysis of the connection between property tax and urban sprawl in U.S. cities. We develop a theoretical model that includes households (who are also landlords) and land developers in a regional land market. We then test the model empirically based on a national...