This paper estimates a monetary policy reaction function for the ECB over the period 1999-2009. To allow for a potential shift in interest rate setting during the financial crisis, we permit a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another. The estimates show a swift change in the...

We study ECB’s interest rate setting in 1999-2010 using a reaction function in which forecasts of future economic growth and inflation enter as regressors. Allowing for a gradual switch between two reaction functions, we detect a shift after Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008 when the...

I estimate a reaction function for the ECB using an ordered logit model for the period 1999-2009. Allowing for a smooth transition from one set of parameters to another, I detect a rapid change in middle of 2008.

In this paper, we investigate the importance of different loss functions when estimating and evaluating option pricing models. Our analysis shows that it is important to take into account parameter uncertainty, since this leads to uncertainty in the predicted option price. We illustrate the...