There is a wide consensus that the existence of structural rigidities in the Eurozone reduces the effectiveness of the ECB’s monetary policies. In order to test this “ECB-handicap” hypothesis, we perform a meta-analysis of the effects of monetary policies in the US and the Eurozone...

Retail prices of major drugs like cocaine and heroin have declined dramatically during the last two decades. This price decline has tended to offset the effects of drug policies aimed at reducing drug use in major industrial countries. The main finding of this paper is that the decline in the...

In this paper we perform a meta-analysis of the effects of monetary policies on output and prices. We use a sample of published papers on the effects of monetary policies in different countries. There is a large variation in the estimated effects of monetary policies on output and prices. We...

DSGE-models have become important tools of analysis not only in academia but increasingly in the board rooms of central banks. The success of these models has much to do with the coherence of the intellectual framework it provides. The limitations of these models come from the fact that they...

The target zone model of Krugman (1991) has failed empirically. In this paper, we develop a model of the exchange rate with heterogeneous agents in a free floating and a target zone regime. We show that this simple model mimics the empirical puzzles of exchange rates: excessive volatility, fat...

We develop a simple model of the foreign exchange market in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one.This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble...

This paper investigates the out-of-sample forecast performance of a set of competing models of exchange rate determination. We compare standard linear models with models that characterize the relationship between exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals by nonlinear dynamics. Linear models...

This paper investigates the relationship between the euro-dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals. First, we develop a simple theoretical model in which chartists and fundamentalists interact. This model predicts the existence of different regimes, and thus non-linearities in the...

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...

In this paper, we investigate the behavior of the exchange rate within the framework of an asset pricing model. We assume boundedly rational agents who use simple rules to forecast the future exchange rate. They test these rules continuously using two learning mechanisms. The first one, the...