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Appropriate Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: Proper Stimulus Policies Can Work

Graves, Philip E. - CESifo - 2010

take the laissez-faire view that policy reactions to the business cycle do not help in a rational expectations world and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008498997

Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset.

Altavilla, Carlo; Ciccarelli, Matteo - CESifo - 2011

matrix and averages model estimates across all data releases. Using standard forecasting and policy models to analyze … monetary authorities’ reaction functions, we show that this simple method can improve forecasting performance and provide …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861862

Central Bank Boards around the World: Why does Membership Size Differ?

Berger, Helge; Nitsch, Volker; Lybek, Tonny - CESifo - 2007

This paper analyzes empirically differences in the size of central bank boards across countries. Defining a board as the body that changes monetary instruments to achieve a specified target, we discuss the possible determinants of a board’s size. The empirical relevance of these factors is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181616

Does Short-Time Work Save Jobs? A Business Cycle Analysis

Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; … - CESifo - 2014

In the Great Recession most OECD countries used short-time work (publicly subsidized working time reductions) to counteract a steep increase in unemployment. We show that short-time work can actually save jobs. However, there is an important distinction to be made: While the rule-based component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010743447

What are the Effects of Tax Changes in the United Kingdom? New Evidence from a Narrative Evaluation

Cloyne, James - CESifo - 2011

This paper estimates the effects of tax changes on the U.K. economy. Identification is achieved by isolating the ‘exogenous’ tax policy shocks in the post-war U.K. economy using a narrative strategy as in Romer and Romer (2010). The resulting tax changes are shown to be unforecastable on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020785

Escaping from a Combination of Liquidity Trap and Credit Crunch

Heinemann, Frank - CESifo - 2008

This brief exposition suggests that the Federal Reserve System temporarily guarantee a lower bound on stock prices in order to escape the current combination of liquidity trap and credit crunch. It shortly discusses reasons for this measure, consequences, and some alternatives. It is meant as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765775

Structural Distortions and Decentralized Fiscal Policies in EMU

Beetsma, Roel; Bovenberg, Lans - CESifo - 2001

The combination of discretionary monetary policy, labor-market distortions and nominal wage rigidity yields an inflation bias as monetary policy tries to exploit nominal wage contracts to address labour-market distortions Although an inflation target eliminates this inflation bias, it creates a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005765964

Fiscal Multipliers and the Choice of Zero Lower Bound Modeling

Siemsen, Thomas; Watzka, Sebastian - CESifo - 2013

In this note we elaborate on the effect of the modeling choice of the zero lower bound on the size of the fiscal multiplier. To this end we contrast two different ways to implement the ZLB in a New Keynesian model: the ZLB modeled as an endogenous central bank reaction to a contractionary demand...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681227

A Multi-Country Approach to Forecasting Output Growth Using PMIs

Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - CESifo - 2014

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093979

Point and Density Forecasts for the Euro Area Using Bayesian VARs

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - CESifo - 2014

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010877728