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Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy; Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography
Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multicountry, multicultural, and multilingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the European Central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825754
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Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Hunt, Ben; Isard, Peter - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass-through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass-through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826051
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U.K. Inflation and Relative Prices Over the Last Decade; How Important Was Globalization?
Hunt, Ben - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
factors argued to explain the differences in the trends in core inflation and relative prices in the United Kingdom, the Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826211
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Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty
Gaiduch, Victor; Hunt, Ben - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
examine the output gap’s usefulness. The results suggest that although output gap uncertainty leads to more inflation and … policy based only on observable inflation and output growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826299
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Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian VARs
Österholm, Pär; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States … including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This …. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and tends to be smaller in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826627
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The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation
Stavrev, Emil; Berger, Helge - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826669
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Getting to Know GIMF; The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model
Anderson, Derek; Hunt, Ben; Kortelainen, Mika; Kumhof, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242434
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Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary?
Anderson, Derek; Botman, Dennis P. J.; Hunt, Ben - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF’s Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142094
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Money As Indicator for the Natural Rate of Interest
Berger, Helge; Weber, Henning - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
transformed money demand, in addition to the observed output gap and inflation, into a simple but optimal interest rate rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650625
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Central Bank Boards Around the World; Why Does Membership Size Differ?
Berger, Helge; Lybek, Tonny; Nitsch, Volker - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper analyzes empirically differences in the size of central bank boards across countries. Defining a board as the body that changes monetary instruments to achieve a specified target, we discuss the possible determinants of a board's size. The empirical relevance of these factors is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768852