The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market...

The experience in the period during and after the Asian crisis of 1997-98 has provoked an extensive debate about the credit rating agencies’ evaluation of sovereign risk in emerging markets lending. This study analyzes the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets,...

This paper deals with the proposed use of sovereign credit ratings in the "Basel Accord on Capital Adequacy" (Basel II) and considers its potential effect on emerging markets financ-ing. It investigates in a first attempt the consequences of the planned revisions on the two central aspects of...

This paper deals with the proposed use of sovereign credit ratings in the Basel Accord on Capital Adequacy (Basel II) and considers its potential effect on emerging markets financ-ing. It investigates in a first attempt the consequences of the planned revisions on the two central aspects of...

Credit rating changes for long-term foreign currency debt may act as a wake-up call with up-grades and downgrades in one country affecting other financial markets within and across national borders. Such a potential (contagious) rating effect is likely to be stronger in emerg-ing market...

The experience in the period during and after the Asian crisis of 1997-98 has provoked an extensive debate about the credit rating agencies evaluation of sovereign risk in emerging markets lending. This study analyzes the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets,...

Credit rating changes for long-term foreign currency debt may act as a wake-up call with up-grades and downgrades in one country affecting other financial markets within and across national borders. Such a potential (contagious) rating effect is likely to be stronger in emerg-ing market...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In...