Motivated by economic-theory concepts—the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure—we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

This paper examines the relevance of incorporating seasonality in agricultural supply models. Former studies have eliminated the problem of seasonality by using seasonally adjusted data. Recent developments in cointegration techniques allow the comprehensive modelling of error-correcting...

The study investigates long-run relationships between futures and spot prices of cocoa on the New York CSCE and London Fox, respectively, and between both markets. By means of the Johansen Maximum Likelihood approach and the inclusion of interest rates as conditioning variables, the three...

Many macroeconometric models depict situations where the shares of the major demand aggregates in output are stable over time. The joint dynamic behavior of the considered demand aggregate and output may thus be approximated by a cointegrated vector autoregression. However, the shares of many...

This paper explores the seasonal cycles of European agricultural commodity prices. We focus on three food crops (barley, soft and durum wheat) and on beef. We investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit-root stochastic and whether seasonal cycle for specific agricultural commodities...

The paper uses the Johansen cointegration approach to analyse long-run pricing strategies of pork and chicken retailers in Austria. Long-run retail pricing strategy is found to be dependent on market share and price elasticity of demand for product. A combination of mark-up pricing strategy for...

This paper analyzes the relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes in international markets and examines how well exchange rate volatility explains movements in stock market returns. The model-based predictions are evaluated on several cost functions. Results from such analysis...

The current study examines the relationship between the world oil price and aggregate demand in a developing country, Ghana, via the interest rate channel by means of cointegration analysis. Results of the study indicate that oil price—by impacting the price level positively—negatively...

Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis....