Das vorliegende Buch beinhaltet sämtliche Beiträge der 23. CIRET-Konferenz, die 1997 in Helsinki sattfand. Schwerpunkte waren dabei der internationale Wettbewerb, der Dienstleistungssektor, die Erhebung und Verwendung von Umfragedaten sowie Finazindikatoren. Besondere Bedeutung haben dabei die...

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...