This paper uses the credit-friction model developed by C´urdia and Woodford, in a series of papers, as the basis for attempting to mimic the behavior of credit spreads in moderate as well as in times of crisis. We are able to generate movements in representative credit spreads that are, at...

Yield curve models within the popular Nelson and Siegel (hereafter NS) class are shown to arise from a formal low-order Taylor approximation to the generic Gaussian affine term structure model. That theoretical foundation provides an assurance that NS models correspond to a well-accepted...

With nominal interest rates near the zero lower bound (ZLB) in many major economies, it has become untenable to apply Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) while ignoring their inherent theoretical deficiency of non-zero probabilities of negative interest rates. In this article I...

I propose a simple framework that quantifies the stance of monetary policy as a “shadow short rate” when the term structure is near the zero lower bound. I demonstrate my framework with a one-factor model applied to Japanese data, including an intuitive economic interpretation of the...

When nominal interest rates are near their zero lower bound (ZLB), as in many developed economies at the time of writing, it is theoretically untenable to apply the popular class of Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) given their inherent material probabilities of negative interest...

The Black framework offers a theoretically appealing way to model the term structure and gauge the stance of monetary policy when the zero lower bound of interest rates becomes constraining, but it is time consuming to apply using standard numerical methods. I outline a faster Monte Carlo...

With nominal interest rates currently at or near their zero lower bound (ZLB) in many major economies, it has become untenable to apply Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) while ignoring their inherent non-zero probabilities of negative interest rates. In this article I modify GATSMs...

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This...

This article introduces an idea for summarizing of the stance of monetary policy with quantities derived from a class of yield curve models that respect the zero lower bound constraint for interest rates. The “economic stimulus measure” aggregates the current and estimated expected path of...

Faster extended Kalman filter estimations of zero lower bound models of the term structure are possible if the analytic properties of the Jacobian matrix for the measurement equation are exploited. I show that such results are straighforward to incorporate, at least in Monte-Carlo-based...