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In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of … exogeneous variables outside the sampling period: given the history at time t, one forecasts the value of inflation at time t …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001111
French National Accounts have a long experience of calculation of volumes both at fixed year prices and at the previous year prices. This experience is described in a first time, and the fact that the chained series are preferred in base 95 is discussed. Then, two questions are analysed on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001129
Business surveys aim at getting, as quickly and as simply as possible, the recent and probable changes in economic activity. Answers to most of the questions are qualitative with three modalities (qualification of an evolution: up / stable / down). The qualitative indicators provided by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001116
Government balances are often adjusted for changes in economic activity in order to draw a clearer picture of the underlying fiscal situation and to use this as a guide to fiscal policy analysis. International organisations estimate the cyclical component of economic activity by the current...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009001123
The two oil shocks of the 1970s reduced the GDP growth rate. Since that period, sudden oil price increases have been considered as a major source of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil price increases on French growth. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008539945
to the long run specifications and to the cointegration problems. The equations are estimated on the non-farm business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003517