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Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts

Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2008

A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with … of average annual growth rates measures of disagreement across forecasters naturally are distorted by a component that … disagreement. Based on the paper's results we suggest two methods to estimate dispersion measures from panels of fixed event …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963644

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the Euro Area

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Onorante, Luca; Paesani, Paolo - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963627

Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion

Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2004

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2002 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069095

Severance Pay and the Shadow of the Law: Evidence for West Germany

Goerke, Laszlo; Pannenberg, Markus - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2005

Due to the complexity of employment protection legislation (EPL) in Germany, there is notable uncertainty about the outcomes of dismissal conflicts. In this study we focus on severance pay and inquire whether its incidence and level varies in a systematic manner with the legal rules as defined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068931

On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

Drakos, Konstantinos; Müller, Cathérine - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010

, inflation, unemployment and poverty risk at work. In contrast, terrorism is less likely to be mentioned when the determinants of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008557210

Foreign Currency Borrowing: The Case of Hungary

Pellényi, Gábor; Bilek, Péter - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

We use household survey data from Hungary to analyse the determinants of foreign currency (FX) borrowing. We do not find evidence that Hungarian FX borrowers are better educated, wealthier or more risk-loving than their peers. In fact, FX borrowing is a common phenomenon driven mostly by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010661282

The Scapegoat Theory of Exchange Rates: The First Tests

Fratzscher, Marcel; Sarno, Lucio; Zinna, Gabriele - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2013

This paper provides an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2011). This theory suggests that market participants may at times attach significantly more weight to individual economic fundamentals to rationalize the pricing of currencies, which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010643156

Foreign Currency Borrowing: The Case of Hungary

Pellényi, Gábor; Bilek, Péter - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011128104

Household Survey Data for Research on Well-Being and Behavior in Central Asia

Brück, Tilman; Esenaliev, Damir; Kroeger, Antje; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2012

This paper summarizes the micro-level survey evidence from Central Asia generated and analyzed between 1991 and 2012. We provide an exhaustive overview over all accessible individual and household-level surveys undertaken in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011128860

Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Bilan, Olena - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2005

The paper explores dynamics of inflation in Ukraine in the period of relative macroeconomic stability. The analysis of … interrelationship between inflation, money growth, wage growth, and a proxy for devaluation expectations is based on impulse responses … the most important factor driving price development, while money supply growth has negligible impact on inflation. In …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068693