Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical...

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for United States. Specifically, we use canonical correlation analysis to filter out the noisy information contained in the coincident...

This paper studies the relationship between international trade and output fluctuations. The authors find evidence that the business cycles of countries that are more open to international trade are more likely to by synchronized with the business cycles of their major trading partners. A...