Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed “the global consumption factor”, to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as...

We test whether asymmetric preferences for losses versus gains as in Ang, Chen, and Xing (2006) also affect the pricing of cash flow versus discount rate news as in Campbell and Vuolteenaho (2004). We construct a new four-fold beta decomposition, distinguishing cash flow and discount rate betas...

This discussion paper led to an article in the <I>Journal of Business and Economic Statistics</I> (2008). Vol. 26, issue 4, pages 510-525.<p> We model 1981–2002 annual US default frequencies for a panel of firms in different rating and age classes. The data is decomposed into a systematic and...</p></i>

Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...

In this paper, we develop a new capital adequacy buffer model (CABM) which is sensitive to dynamic economic circumstances. The model, which measures additional bank capital required to compensate for fluctuating credit risk, is a novel combination of the Merton structural model which measures...

We study the effects on credit allocation and bank stability of introducing a leverage ratio requirement (LRR) on top of risk-based capital requirements, as in Basel III. For the current 3% LRR, both low-risk and high-risk loan rates and volumes remain essentially unchanged, because banks...

We show how banks’ excessive risk-taking, stemming from informational asymmetries in loan markets, can lead to an excessive output loss when a recession starts. Risk-based capital requirements can alleviate the output loss by reducing excessive risk-taking in ‘normal’ times. Model...

Basel II framework requires banks to conduct stress tests on their potential future minimum capital requirements and consider ‘at least the effect of mild recession scenarios’. We propose a stress testing framework for minimum capital requirements in which banks’ corporate credit risks are...

In the discussion paper, we employ data on industry-specific corporate sector bankruptcies over the time period from 1986 to 2003 and estimate a macroeconomic credit risk model for the Finnish corporate sector. The sample period includes a severe recession with significantly higher-than-average...