The objective of this paper is to predict, both in-sample and out-of-sample, the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States (US) economy based on monthly data covering the period of 1980:1-2013:12, using a variety of linear (random walk (RW), autoregressive (AR) and seasonally-adjusted...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fiscal decentralisation and poverty in South Africa within a panel data framework. The data used covers the period 2005 to 2011 for the eight metropolitan municipalities making a total of 56 observations. We use household consumption...

Consumption and output responses to fiscal shocks are studied in a model with fiscal foresight. Fiscal foresight reduces both output multipliers and consumption. However, key features such as sticky wages, credit constrained households and elastic labour supply, are able to generate both...

Research on tax elasticities in South Africa mainly employs linear models and shows that taxes evolve symmetrically irrespective of the economic cycle. This study extends this research to show that taxes behave asymmetrically and nonlinearly during expansions and contractions. Estimated linear...

This paper investigates the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity in South Africa by analysing the relationship between house prices and the prices of non-housing goods and services. Quarterly data series are collected for the luxury, large middle-segment, medium middle-segment, small...

This paper investigates the existence of spillovers from the housing sector onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising of real...

This paper analyses the relationship between house prices and the trade balance in South Africa using an agnostic identification procedure. This method allows a housing demand shock to be identified in an eight-variable VAR model by imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of consumer...

This paper evaluates the welfare gain from reducing inflation permanently from two percent to price stability and compares it the output cost associate with this transition. The paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the interaction of inflation and capital income taxation, in calculating...

This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model of a financially repressed economy, characterized by an Unofficial Financial Market and productive public expenditure, and, in turn, analyzes the effects of financial liberalization on the rate of growth and inflation. Following the current...