inflation, strong real wage growth, and low rate of unemployment in the U.S. economy during the late 1990s. Many of these …

This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output … prices predict either inflation or output growth in some countries in some periods. Which series predicts what, when and …

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

similar), instead of gaps. Second, we study the components of inflation instead of the standard aggregates. We find that some … inflation components have strong and stable correlations with the cyclical component of real activity; these components tend to … internationally determined, have weak and/or unstable correlations with cyclical activity. We construct a new inflation index …

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United …

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

An important input to monetary policymaking is estimating the current level of inflation. This paper examines … empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to … construct indexes akin to core inflation, but with time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends …