A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …

inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of … economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged …

Amidst the recent resurgence of inflation, this paper investigates the interplay of corporate profits and income … distribution in shaping inflation and aggregate demand within the New Keynesian framework. We derive a novel analytical condition …-demand fluctuations and inflation to be amplified by heterogeneity, profits have to be countercyclical--an implication that is at odds …

recent global surges in inflation and government spending. This study applies the FTPL to 37 OECD countries for 2020 …-2022. The theory's centerpiece is the government's intertemporal budget constraint, which relates a country's inflation rate in … increase in the ratio of government expenditure to GDP from 2020 to 2022, divided by the ratio of public debt to GDP in 2019 …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020 …-2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices … and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time …

explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the … that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class …

We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple … framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our …; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25 …

We leverage the inflation upswing of 2022 and various granular datasets to identify robust price-setting patterns … for interpreting recent inflation dynamics …