This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steadystate inflation and inflation … can achieve lower inflation uncertainty by lowering the inflation rate. JEL Classification: E31, E52, C22 …

ingredient to model. In fact, I found that the estimated premium is a very powerful predictor of inflation. It overcomes, in …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E …

theoretical predictions and simulations are corroborated when forecasting aggregate US inflation pre- and post 1984 using …

price inflation, the degree of trade openness, the level of past inflation, the ratio of external debt to GDP and the …This paper empirically assesses which factors trigger prolonged periods of inflation for a sample of 91 countries over … inflation starts. The empirical results suggest that for all cases considered a more fixed exchange rate regime and lower real …

assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer … Survey data. The results suggest that expectations drive inflation with a lag of about 6 months, which casts further doubt on …

A large literature in macroeconomics assumes a social objective function, W(pi,U), where inflation, pi, and … dollar value of a low inflation rate. It also examines the struture of happiness equations across countries and time. …