The present paper develops a basic framework for evaluating and optimizing profits in a business operation. In developing a business we are often faced with an infinity of choices ranging from what products or services to sell and what customers to target to how to structure and manage the...

In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model works well for...

We propose a general framework for studying the evolution ofheterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic feedback setting. Beliefsdistributions are defined on a continuous space representingthe possible strategies agents can choose from. Agents base theirchoices on past performances. As new information...

Most stock exchange regulators around the world reacted to the 2007-2009 crisis byimposing bans or regulatory constraints on short-selling. Short-selling restrictions wereimposed and lifted at different dates in different countries, often applied to different sets ofstocks and featured different...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <A href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487010000929">'Journal of Economic Psychology'</A>, 31(6), 964-84.<P>In repeated number guessing games choices typically converge quickly to the Nash equilibrium. In positive expectations feedback experiments, however, convergence to the equilibrium price tends...</p></a>

We value rating-triggered step-up bonds with three methods: (i) the Jarrow, Lando andTurnbull (1997, JLT) framework, (ii) a similar framework using historical probabilities and(iii) as plain vanilla bonds. We find that the market seems to value single step-up bondsaccording to the JLT model,...

Standard risk metrics tend to underestimate the true risks of hedge funds becauseof serial correlation in the reported returns. Getmansky et al. (2004) derive mean,variance, Sharpe ratio, and beta formulae adjusted for serial correlation. Followingtheir lead, adjusted downside and global...

Exploring the period since the inception of the euro, we show that secondary-market yields on Italian public debt increase in anticipation of auctions of new issues and decrease after the auction, while no or a smaller such effect is present for German public debt. However, these yield movements...