This short note shows that there exists a simple relation between the private ECU, its theoretical value and the associated interest rates. From this relation, one can estimate the time to EMU as expected by financial markets and see whether this time is consistent with a monetary union taking...

A recent report from the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) has advocated that fixed conversion rates for the start of EMU should be preannounced as soon as possible. The aim of this short paper is to focus on the potential dangers of such a decision. Indeed, the CEPR report propositions...