This paper designs and implements a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model for a vector of data describing the Iowa economy. Posterior distributions of parameters and the latent factor are analyzed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and coincident and leading indicators are given by posterior...

We develop a business cycle model in which consumption goods, physical capital, and human capital are produced in separate sectors. An important feature of the model is that human and machine inputs in the production process are treated symmetrically: each has both a stock and flow component....

Who was closer to the source of business cycle fluctuations--Keynes or Prescott and Solow? Two types of business-cycle impulses which have been associated with their names -- marginal efficiency of investment shocks (Keynes) and technology shocks (Prescott and Solow) -- are studied here in a...

We develop a model of costly technology adoption where the cost is irrecoverable and fixed. Households must decide when to switch from an existing technology to a new, more productive technology. Using a recursive approach, we show that there is a unique threshold level of wealth above which a...

In this paper, we examine the robust Wald test statistic for SUR systems with adding up restrictions where the same explanatory variables are present in all equations and where heteroskedasticity and/or autocorrelation of unknown forms may be present. For this case, the coefficients are usually...

We examine the impact of incomplete risk-sharing on growth and welfare. The source of market incompleteness in our economy is private information: a household's idiosyncratic productivity shock is not observable by others. Risk-sharing between households occurs through long-term contracts with...