Showing 1 - 10 of 42
In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076772
We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556300
The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126411
, the root mean square error, bias and finally directional accuracy. The forecasts are even compared to naive random walk … by the naive random walk model. Tests of bias indicate that the Swedish forecasters underestimate GDP-growth and …, root mean square error, directional accuracy, bias, revisions, final respective preliminary outcomes, Theil index, naïve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412654
We study the effects of unequal representation in the interest-group system on the degree of information transmission between a lobbyist and a policymaker. Employing a dynamic cheap-talk model in which the lobbyist cares instrumentally about his reputation for truthtelling, we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413244
Recent surveys in the United States and the Muslim world show widespread misinformation about the events of September 11, 2001. Using data from 9 predominantly Muslim countries, we study how such beliefs depend on exposure to news media and levels of education. Standard economic theory would...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413251
We study the effects of unequal representation in the interest-group system on the degree of information transmission between a lobbyist and a policymaker. Employing a dynamic cheap-talk model in which the lobbyist cares instrumentally about his reputation for truthtelling, we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005076613
Studies suggest a bias against the publication of null (p > .05) results. Instead of significance, we advocate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005062675
may have a differential impact across groups, creating differential bias. We should reorganize forensic work to reduce … differential bias. The obvious strategy of hiring ethnically diverse forensic workers will not work. “Us vs. Them” thinking is an … important source of differential bias. The definition of “Us” and “Them” is socially conditioned. The current organization of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556815
Why do statisticians (econometricians, economists, financial analysts, etc.) continue to incompletely identify the algebraic/geometric structure of the multi-variate data series they profess to analyze, and instead continue to publish the results of incomplete, prejudiced and biased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119108