Asset prices are forward looking. This evidence implies that prices of financial assets are essentially determined by the traders expectations about future prices. Another evidence about asset prices is that these do not seem to follow a predictable pattern over time; we observe periods of high...

We consider the position management problem for an agent trading a mean- reverting asset. This problem arises in many statistical and fundamental arbitrage trading situations when the short-term returns on an asset are predictable but limited risk-bearing capacity does not allow to fully exploit...

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the outcome of experiments carried out on forward-looking subjects. Natural experiments, unexpected policy changes, and true experiments are all included in the framework as special cases. These concepts are defined in conjunction with explicit...

We consider optimization problems involving coherent risk measures. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions of optimality for these problems, and we discuss the nature of the nonanticipativity constraints. Next, we introdice dynamic risk measures, and we formulate multistage optimization...

We introduce an axiomatic definition of a conditional convex risk mapping. By employing the techniques of conjugate duality we derive properties of conditional risk mappings. In particular, we prove a representation theorem for conditional risk mappings in terms of conditional expectations. We...

This paper empirically examines the life-time joint decision problem of marriage, childbearing, and labor force participation for women in Japan, motivated by the recent decrease in the number of marriages and the total fertility rate. Using the 1993-95 Japanese Panel Surveys of Consumption, the...

On the basis of models I developed to simulate mathematical relationships between external debt and fiscal and balance of payments variables my thesis evaluates whether debt cancellation will overcome the debt overhang and crowding out effects of external debt and allow Severely Indebted Low...

Further to investigation of how Malawi accumulated external debts amounting to $2.7 billion, without a corresponding growth in the economy, exports capability or poverty reduction this paper much of the borrowing contracted during 1973-82 was consumed by balance of payments deficits caused by...

The accumulations of foreign debts had indeed been at a rapid phase, particularly during the last few years leading to the outbreak of the 1997 financial crises in the four most severely effected economies, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Korea. Interestingly, during the same...

This paper is a review of the different approaches on external debt sustainability. The Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative was launched to assure a permanent exit from debt dependence. However, the IMF-World Bank program is not without faults, in particular for what concerns debt...