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China’s growing demand for oil is significantly changing the international geopolitics of energy, especially in the … East Asian economies (China, Japan and South Korea) is also a possibility. This document first of all presents an overview … of China’s energy sector, emphasising the strong growth in its energy demand to date and its potential for future growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118931
-parametric regression approach to next-day volatility forecasting. A second finding is that the GARCH(1,1) model severely over-estimated the … unconditional variance leads to poor volatility forecasts during the period under discussion with the MSE of GARCH(1,1) 1-year ahead … volatility more than 4 times bigger than the MSE of a forecast based on historical volatility. We test and reject the hypothesis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407908
, using a bivariate SWARCH model to show the dependence of the high and low volatility states of the IT.CAC on the NASDAQ-100 …, with no intermediate simultaneous high-low volatility states. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556399
modeling this market’s high volatility to prevent against crises.The strong linkage of the American and European New Technology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119158
financial instruments in the portfolio and on the volatility of those returns.This task is relatively simple if the correlations … and volatilities do not change over time.But in reality both volatility and stock market indexes’ correlations do change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124892
This paper examines the forecasting performance of GARCH’s models used with agricultural commodities data. We compare different possible sources of forecasting improvement, using various statistical distributions and models. We have chosen to confine our analysis on four indices which are the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134650
Following the financial crises in November 2000 and February 2001, the Turkish government canceled the 2000-2002 disinflation and economic restructuring program on February 22, 2001, and introduced a new macroeconomic-policy program on April 14, 2001. According to this new program, the annual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412705
The paper examines the relationship between UK wholesale gas prices and the Brent oil price over the period 1996-2003. Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration are carried out and it is discovered that a long run equilibrium relationship between UK gas and oil prices predates the opening of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556400
by commodity price volatility, but not attempt to control commodity prices. The cost of the CPI scheme is estimated by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124875
Recently, there has been growing concern that human activities may be affecting the global climate through growing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases(GHG). Such warming could have major impacts on economic activity and society. For the Nigerian case, the study uses multisector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125634