The paper shows that there is a close connection between (constant) consistent conjectures in a given game and evolutionary stability of conjectures. Evolutionarily stable conjectures are consistent and consistent conjectures are the only interior candidates for evolutionary stability.

The paper compares two models of evolution in symmetric two-player games with incomplete information. One model postulates that the type of a player is fixed, and evolution works within types. In the other model type-contingent strategies evolve. In the case of two types and two strategies it is...

In a seminal paper Bagwell (1995) claims that the first mover advantage, i.e. the strategic benefit of committing oneself to an action before others can do, vanishes completely if this action is only imperfectly observed by second movers. In our paper we report on an experimental test of this...