The open financial economic systems of six Asian countries Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia and Japan - over the period 1986 through 1995 are identified from empirical data to determine how their stock markets, economies and financial markets are interrelated. The objective is...

This paper presents theoretical models and their empirical results for the return and variance dynamics of German stocks. A factor structure is used in order to allow for a parsimonious modeling of the first two moments of returns. Dynamic factor models with GARCH dynamics (GARCH(1,1)-M,...

The question of long-run predictability in the aggregate US stock market is still unsettled. This is due to the lack of a robust method to judge the statistical significance of long-run regressions under the maintained hypothesis. By developing a spectral theory of long-run regressions with both...

Concern is growing regarding the poverty impacts of trade liberalization. The strong general equilibrium effects of trade liberalization can only be properly analysed in a CGE model. However, the aggregate nature of CGE models is not suited to detailed poverty analysis. We bridge this gap by...

The investment acceleration principle is a heuristic for modeling investment time series out of consumption time series. The model presented herein develops a disaggregated accelerator equation whose coefficients are the weights of a Kohonen neural net that represents firms' decision-making....

Investment decision-making is modeled by means of a Kohonen neural net, where neurons represent firms. This is done in order to model investments in novel fields of economic activity, that according to this model are carried out when firms recognize the emergence of a new technological pattern....

For the purpose of determining the influence of the amount of savings circulating in national economy on that economy's growth or drop, a discrete mathematical model with one commodity was developed describing its production as a function of joint investments, depreciation, and introduction of...

Schumpeter maintained that oscillations of macroeconomic variables are only the "secondary wave" of business cycles, a reflex of more fundamental "primary waves" at the microeconomic level caused by the innovative activity of entrepreneurs. Uniting Schumpeter's concern for innovation with...