Two of the most important refinements of the Nash equilibrium concept for extensive form games with perfect recall are Selten's (1975) {\it perfect equilibrium\/} and Kreps and Wilson's (1982) more inclusive {\it sequential equilibrium\/}. These two equilibrium refinements are motivated in very...

The stochastic evolutionary game literature is built on three behavioral postulates: ``noisy'' decisionmaking, myopic decisionmaking and random opportunities for choice (inertia). The role of noise is by now well- understood. This paper investigates the significance of the other two postulates....

Evolutionary arguments are often used to justify the fundamental behavioral postulates of competive equilibrium. Economists such as Milton Friedman have argued that natural selection favors profit maximizing firms over firms engaging in other behaviors. Consequently, producer efficiency, and...

Recent advances in evolutionary game theory have employed stochastic processes of noise in decisionmaking to select in favor of certain equilibria in coordination games. Noisy decisionmaking is justified on bounded rationality grounds, and consequently the sources of noise are left unmodelled....

Social interactions provide a set of incentives for regulating individual behavior. Chief among these is stigma, the status loss and discrimination that results from the display of stigmatized attributes or behaviors. The stigmatization of behavior is the enforcement mechanism behind social...

Interest rate based tests and savings-investment correlations disagree on the extent of capital mobility in Pacific Rim economies. The apparent success of several East Asian countries in sterilizing capital inflows has also fueled the controversy. This paper argues that previous studies...

This paper documents the evidence for a fiscal model of the Yen/Dollar real exchange rate over the 1974-1994 period. Cointegrating relationships between the real exchange rate and productivity, government spending and the real price of oil are estimated using the Johansen (1988) and Stock-Watson...

This paper investigates the relative influence of US and Japanese real interest rates in the determination of local Pacific Rim rates, where influence is defined by the presence of common stochastic trends. Alternatively, we ask whether real rates are driven by the same shocks. Furthermore, the...

This paper examines whether test results characterizing per capita output as either trend or difference stationary are sensitive to whether output is valued in domestic currency terms, or in some international numeraire, such as the Summers and Heston (1991) international dollar. Using the...

We apply a comprehensive set of survey data, on forecasts for 24 currencies against the dollar, to four topics. (1) We find some predictive power in the survey data (and in the right direction!). As in past tests, the forecasts are nevertheless biased: variability of expected depreciation is...