This paper documents a new stylized fact of the U.S. greater macroeconomic stability of the last two decades or so. Using 131 monthly time series, three popular statistical methods and the forecasts of the Federal Reserve's Green book and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we show that the...

This paper models an inflation forecast density framework that closely resembles actual policy makers behaviour regarding the determination of the modal point, the uncertainty and asymmetry in the inflation forecasts. The framework combines policy makers prior information about these parameters...

We propose a quantum-like description of markets and economics. The approach has roots in the recently developed quantum game theory. Quantum Zeno paradoxes and noncomutative quantum mecanics are also discussed.

According to the standard definition, a Bayesian agent is one who forms his posterior belief by conditioning his prior belief on what he has learned, that is, on facts of which he has become certain. Here it is shown that Bayesianism can be described without assuming that the agent acquires any...

IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO ASK WHAT IS SPECIAL ABOUT INFORMATION AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY BEFORE ONE SETS OUT TO ANSWER THE QUESTION OF HOW INVESTMENTS IN INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE SHOULD BE VALUED AND REGULATED.THIS PROJECT THEREFORE DISCUSSES THE THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL CONCEPTS UNDERLYING...

During the post-world war 11 period, industrialization was an irresistable trend, made global by the dynamics of international markets.Today, the industrial siciety faces the risks created by its own success. Its growth has been accompanied by a voracious use of natural resources and by...

It has been shown in economic research that public pay-as-you-go defined-benefit pension plans penalize those who continue to work beyond a certain age by reducing the present discounted value of future retirement benefits. In discussions on the effectiveness of policies aimed at eliminating...

Considering two potential sources of income (public grants and ticket revenues),we have defined a theoretical model where the public agency is the principal and the manager of the museum is the agent. This model allows us to design the optimal contract between both sides and thus to establish...

If each member of a group assigns a certain probability to a hypothesis, what probability should the collective as a whole assign? More generally, how should individual probability functions be merged into a single collective one? I investigate this question in case that the individual...

This paper describes the experiences of developing country enterprises, farmers and governments with commodity price risk management and various forms of structured finance. It explores the constraints that these entities face in using modern financial markets, including counterparty and...