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considerably increased exhibiting a certain level of correlation. We find signs of a co-movement effect between the volatilities of …, using a bivariate SWARCH model to show the dependence of the high and low volatility states of the IT.CAC on the NASDAQ-100 …, with no intermediate simultaneous high-low volatility states. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556399
modeling this market’s high volatility to prevent against crises.The strong linkage of the American and European New Technology … sectors has brought up the co-movement and the contagion hypothesis,especially after the fall in new technology stock prices … work on contagion in the case of stock market indexes. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119158
affected by ‘vo- latility contagion’ coming from emerging markets. I find also some partial support for the ‘volatility … contagion’ hypothesis on Czech interest rates. These findings shed some doubts on the alleged theoretical ability of a floating … exchange rate regime, thereby re-establishing some credibility of the theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125528
modelling international bond markets. We derive necessary conditions for the correlation and volatility structure of mixture …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005134688
This paper investigates whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects on stock returns using Markov-switching models. Different measures of the stance of monetary policy are adopted. Empirical evidence from monthly returns on the standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) price index suggests that monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412588
This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications by applying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556398
Duration dependent Markov-switching VAR (DDMS-VAR) models are time series models with data generating process consisting in a mixture of two VAR processes, which switches according to a two-state Markov chain with transition probabilities depending on how long the process has been in a state. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119222
In this paper we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in … omitted variable respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an over …-identifying restriction. Unlike other studies, our approach is based on full-sample estimation, and hence avoids the power problems arising …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408168
Cet article a pour objet d’´etudier empiriquement le ph´enom`ene de contagion lors de la crise asiatique de 1997 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408190
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408199