The paper outlines a methodology for analyzing daily stock returns that relinquishes the assumption of global stationarity. Giving up this common working hypothesis reflects our belief that fundamental features of the financial markets are continuously and significantly changing. Our approach...

This paper seeks whether the intraday patterns observed in most stock markets hold for an individual stock from the Istanbul Stock Exchange where the trading ceases for two hours during lunchtime. It investigates the most treated topics in market finance like liquidity, returns and volatility...

This paper discusses various ways of measuring the persistence or Long Memory (LM) of financial market risk in both its time and frequency domains. For the measurement of the risk, irregularity or 'randomness' of these series, we can compute a set of critical Lipschitz - Hölder exponents, in...

This paper gives an overview of some issues related to market aluation, focusing on the developments on the New York equity markets. The 42.4 p.c. fall in the S&P 500 price index between 24 March 2000 - when it reached its all-time high - and 31 December 2002 is situated in a very long term...

This is the FINAL draft of this paper reporting the results of a long ongoing competition. The paper now is forthcoming in the Journal of Econometrics. This final version replaces the earlier draft that was also in this archive. Interest has been growing in testing for nonlinearity or chaos in...

In this paper we consider bayesian semiparametric regression within the generalized linear model framework. Specifically, we study a class of autoregressive time series where the time trend is incorporated in a nonparametrically way. Estimation and inference where performed through Markov Chain...

This paper is a follow-on to our earlier paper, "Bifurcations in Continuous-Time Macroeconomic Systems." In this paper, we determine the stability properties of the UK continuous time macroeconometric model on its bifurcation boundaries and we test the null hypothesis that the model's parameters...

Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of even the simplest, most classical models is stratified into bifurcation regions. But in such classical models all policies are Ricardian equivalent and all solutions are Pareto optimal. As a result he was not able to reach conclusions about...

This paper is a comment on Serletis and Shintani, 'Chaotic Monetary Dynamics with Confidence,' which is to appear in a special issue of the Journal of Macroeconomics on chaos in economics. The Editor of the special issue invited comments from discussants of all papers in the special issue, with...

Using a recently introduced nonparametric test, I investigate two important and distinct asymmetries in cross-country quarterly macroeconomic time series. Asymmetries are suggested by many theories (old and new), and those discovered aid in the selection of the appropriate nonlinear time series...