This article presents a comparative analysis of four macroeconometric models whose proprietors participated in a model comparison conference focused on the new euro area economy. One model, the Area-Wide Model recently developed at the European Central Bank, treats the whole area as a single...

A density forecast of the realization of a random variable at some future time is an estimate of the probability distribution of the possible future values of that variable. This article presents a selective survey of applications of density forecasting in macroeconomics and finance, and...

This paper develops concordance indices for studying the simultaneous occurrence of financial crises across markets and/or countries. The typically low incidence of financial crises necessitates a change in the definition of concordance from those recently developed for the business cycle...

The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments’ characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility...