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Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063720
strategies of an investment in the Lehman Brothers Bond index (by up to 5.9 times) and an investment in the S&P index (by up to 5 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702587
samples and it translates into a bias in pricing bond options and other derivative securities that is important in practical … work. The present paper proposes a very general and computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction for pricing bond … achieves substantial bias reductions in pricing bond options with only mild increases in variance that do not compromise the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005699682
-factor settings with latent variables that are readily interpreted as the conditional mean and volatility of the interest rate, and … dynamics that explain the inadequate performance of nested models. Finally, we explore the bond pricing implications and … perform illustrative calibrations for the yield curve. We select a three-factor specification featuring stochastic volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063579
volatility. These regime shifts reflect changing inflation expectations and shifts in monetary policy, respectively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063728
Yield spread between long and short bonds has been used to forecast economic activity for a long time and has yielded some positive results, particularly for the U.S. data. Recently it has been shown that the forecast can be improved by incorporating the economic activity variable into a term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005702522
the volatility structure of the LIBOR markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005130170
The literature gives evidence that term spreads help predict output growth, inflation, and interest rates. This paper integrates and explains these predictability results by using an affine term structure model with observable macroeconomic factors. The results suggest that consumers are willing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005130246
recent claims in the literature. We find that there is a threshold effect of volatility on the interest rate but this effect … volatility into the quadratic model, generally performs well for all interest rates. The paper suggests that this model is a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342379
is shown that the nonstationarity of volatility in the regression errors may induce spuriousness of the underlying … nonstationary volatility is present in the errors. Mild nonstationary volatilities do not render the underlying regression spurious …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086429