The literature on aid and growth has not found a convincing instrumental variable to identify the causal effects of aid. This paper exploits an instrumental variable based on the fact that since 1987, eligibility for aid from the International Development Association (IDA) has been based partly...

Three large current account imbalances -- one deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) -- are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange...

While economic theory highlights the usefulness of flexible exchange rates in promoting adjustment in international relative prices, flexible exchange rates also can be a source of destabilizing shocks. We find that when countries joining the euro currency union abandoned their national exchange...

We develop an estimator for latent factors in a large-dimensional panel of financial data that can explain expected excess returns. Statistical factor analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has problems identifying factors with a small variance that are important for asset pricing....

Studies find price increases for additions to the S&P 500 index but no decreases for deletions. Additions come with good earnings news, suggesting these studies are not just measuring an indexing effect. We develop a regression discontinuity design using Russell Indices for cleaner...

Models of voting, including the canonical rational voter model, predict that voters are more likely to turn out when they anticipate a closer election. Yet, evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout is limited. We exploit naturally occurring variation in the...

This paper addresses the puzzle of regime-dependent volatility in foreign exchange. We extend the literature in two ways. First, our microstructural model provides a qualitatively new explanation for the puzzle. Second, we test implications of our model using Europe's recent shift to rigidly...

This paper is the first to study empirically the effects of European antidumping actions on import diversion from importers 'named' in an antidumping investigation, and potentially subject to protectionist measures, to countries not named' in the investigation. For this purpose we use a unique...

This study investigates whether rights to paid parental leave improve pediatric health, as measured by birth weights and infant or child mortality. Aggregate data are used for nine European countries over the 1969 through 1994 period. Year and country fixed-effects are held constant and most...

This paper studies the relationship between real wages and unernployment in Europe. It finds no evidence that high real wages are responsible for the differing behavior of unemployment in Europe as contrasted with the U. S., and across European countries finds patterns of real wage behavior that...