Narrow search
Showing 1 - 8 of 8
Cover Image
To aggregate or not to aggregate? Euro area inflation forecasting
Benalal, Nicholai; Hoyo, Diaz del; Luis, Juan; Landau, … - European Central Bank - 2004
In this paper we investigate whether the forecast of the HICP components (indirect approach) improves upon the forecast of overall HICP (direct approach) and whether the aggregation of country forecasts improves upon the forecast of the euro-area as a whole, considering the four largest euro...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530968
Cover Image
On the selection of forecasting models
Inoue, Atsushi; Kilian, Lutz - European Central Bank - 2003
It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean square error (PMSE) in simulated ou-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005222278
Cover Image
A system approach for measuring the euro area NAIRU
Fabiani, Silvia; Mestre, Ricardo - European Central Bank - 2001
variance of the process. The latter is derived through bootstrap exercises using the models alone or pooled together. The …, the bootstrap exercises point to confidence bands close to 1 per cent around the estimated value. JEL Classification: C11 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530711
Cover Image
Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?
Warne, Anders; Bruggeman, Annick; Donati, Paola - European Central Bank - 2003
JEL Classification: C22, C32, E41
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005531005
Cover Image
Cross-country efficiency of secondary education provision: a semi-parametric analysis with non-discretionary inputs
Afonso, António; St. Aubyn, Miguel - European Central Bank - 2005
analysis output scores on nondiscretionary variables, both using Tobit and a single and double bootstrap procedure, we show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005816218
Cover Image
Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks
McNelis, Paul; McAdam, Peter - European Central Bank - 2004
models. They outperform the best performing linear models for “real-time” and “bootstrap” forecasts for service indices for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005227535
Cover Image
Optimism bias? The elasticity puzzle in international economics revisited
Corbo, Vesna; Osbat, Chiara - European Central Bank - 2012
main contribution is the use of bootstrap methods, which offer more insight into the Feenstra method and can explain why … researchers applying it may tend to find high estimates. The bootstrap not only allows us to obtain considerably less biased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686854
Cover Image
Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?
El-Shagi, Makram; Jung, Alexander - European Central Bank - 2013
bootstrap analysis exploits information contained in these reaction functions and constructs counterfactual distributions of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010693496