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related payment and settlement systems. At the heart of systemic risk are contagion effects, various forms of external effects … rigorous models of bank and payment system contagion have now been developed, although a general theoretical paradigm is still … missing. Direct econometric tests of bank contagion effects seem to be mainly limited to the United States. Empirical studies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005344911
Building on the literature on systemic risk and financial contagion, the pa- per introduces estimated network linkages … hold in relation to simpler benchmarks of contagion. Generally, this paper gives direct support for measures of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298362
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build‐up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301913
This paper develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting financial crises, based on a multinomial logit model. It is shown that EWS approaches based on binomial discrete-dependent-variable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530922
This paper aims at providing policymakers with a set of early warning indicators helpful in guiding decisions on when to activate macroprudential tools targeting excessive credit growth and leverage. To robustly select the key indicators we apply the “Random Forest” method, which bootstraps...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067235
A financial stress index for the United States is introduced – an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the financial crisis of 2008-9 – and the interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is demonstrated using a richly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011067270
This paper introduces the ratio of debt to cash ow (D/CF) of nations and their economic sectors to macroprudential analysis, particularly as an indicator of systemic risk and vulnerabilities. While leverage is oftentimes linked to the vulnerability of a nation, the stock of total debt and the ow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298715
or even a fully-fledged banking crisis. We find that a large current account deficit, a fall in price competitiveness …, strong real growth and high public debt-to-GDP ratio increase the probability that a lending or housing boom would be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008566395
This paper tests financial contagion due to interbank linkages. For identification we exploit an idiosyncratic, sudden … contagion is higher for banks with weaker fundamentals. Third, interbank linkages among surviving banks further propagate the … linkages act as an important channel of contagion and hold important policy implications. JEL Classification: G21, G28, E58 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008545907
We identify a set of "rules of thumb" that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970-2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF) extension,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298886