This paper focuses on tenure driven productivity dynamics of a firm-worker match asa potential explanation of "unemployment volatility puzzle". We let new matches andcontinuing jobs differ by their productivity levels and by their sensitivity to aggregateproductivity shocks. As a result, new...

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assessestheir implications for in‡ation dynamics through both their e¤ect on marginalcost and on price-setting behaviour. In a search and matching environment, weconsider the following modeling setups: right-to-manage...

Since the advent of Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models, countercyclical unemployment risk has been deemed an important amplification mechanism for business cycles shocks. Yet, the aggregate effects of such "unemployment fears" are hard to pin down. We thus revisit this issue in the...

Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for income poorer households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro...

In this paper, we exploit micro data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to examine the link between the characteristics of macroeconomic density forecasts (such as their location, spread, skewness and tail risk) and density forecast performance. Controlling for the effects of...

We use an extensive data set of bilateral exposures on credit default swap (CDS) to estimate the impact on collateral demand of new margin and clearing practices and regulations. We decompose collateral demand for both customers and dealers into several key components, including the "velocity...

The balance sheet adjustment in the household sector was a prominent feature of the Great Recession that is widely believed to have held back the cyclical recovery of the US economy. A key question for the US outlook is therefore whether household deleveraging has ended or whether further...

Forbearance is a practice of granting concessions to troubled borrowers, typically in the form of prolongation of maturity of refinancing of the loan. While economically useful in some circumstances, it can be used by banks in order to reduce the need for provisions and conceal potential losses....

We identify a set of "rules of thumb" that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970-2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF) extension,...

Existing work on wage bargaining (as exemplified by Cukierman and Lippi, 2001) typicallypredicts more aggressive wage setting under monetary union. This insight has not beenconfirmed by the EMU experience, which has been characterised by wage moderation,thereby eliciting criticism from Posen and...