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Term premia are shown to provide crucial information for discriminating among alternative sources of change in the economy, and namely shifts in the variance of structural shocks and in monetary policy. These sources have been identified as competing explanations for time-varying features of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301916
We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective … expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to … methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015320536
This study evaluates the macroeconomic effects of Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB). Using high-frequency data, we find that OMT announcements decreased the Italian and Spanish 2-year government bond yields by about 2 percentage points, while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301819
forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation … results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298680
This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey … on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across … firms' inflation expectations and show that firms disagree about future inflation more than professional forecasters but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015276095
-2023, we explore how the FX derivative trading by European funds compares to a feasible theoretical benchmark of optimal … sub-optimal. Overall, the observed FX derivative trading does not significantly reduce the return risk of the average …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015320855
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015302483
In this paper, we exploit micro data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to examine the link between the characteristics of macroeconomic density forecasts (such as their location, spread, skewness and tail risk) and density forecast performance. Controlling for the effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301871
We use an extensive data set of bilateral exposures on credit default swap (CDS) to estimate the impact on collateral demand of new margin and clearing practices and regulations. We decompose collateral demand for both customers and dealers into several key components, including the "velocity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015302494
The balance sheet adjustment in the household sector was a prominent feature of the Great Recession that is widely believed to have held back the cyclical recovery of the US economy. A key question for the US outlook is therefore whether household deleveraging has ended or whether further...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015302574