This paper analyses the predictive power of market-based and survey-based inflation expectations for actual inflation. We use the data on inflation swaps and the forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the euro area and the United States. The results show that both market-based...

The production of most goods and services is nowadays vertically fragmented across different countries, as global value chains (GVCs) emerged as the current paradigm for the international organisation of production. This paper surveys part of the growing empirical literature on GVCs, starting by...

The ability of institutions to effectively manage and aggregate risk-related data is an essential precondition for sound decision-making and strong risk governance. This applies to any data used to steer and manage institutions, both strategically and operationally, as well as data used for...

The change in macroeconomic conditions since the ECB's strategy review in 2021 towards an environment characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates, and renewed concerns about elevated government debt has been a vocal reminder of the intricate interdependencies between monetary...

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...

The following sections provide a description of the methodology used as part of the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) for assessing the interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) and credit spread risk in the banking book (CSRBB) of significant institutions. The ECB uses a...

The ECB has collected data on the unrealised losses of significant institutions under its direct supervision with a view to enhancing the assessment of risk in the held-to-maturity portfolios of euro area banks and to furthering its monitoring of interest rate risk and liquidity risk.