Brignone, Davide (contributor); Gambetti, Luca (contributor) - European Central Bank - 2024
In this paper, we investigate the presence of non-linearities in the transmission of geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks … associated with heightened un-certainty, which significantly escalates only with substantially large GPR shocks (i.e., above 4 … standard deviations). This increase in uncertainty prompts pre-cautionary saving behaviors, exerting a strong impact on …