We compare the labour market response to region-specific shocks in Europe and the US and to national shocks in Europe and investigate changes over time. We employ a multi-level factor model to decompose regional labour market variables and then estimate the dynamic response of the employment...

Macroprudential policy can comprise a broad range of issues and topics. This is clearly reflected in the second issue of the ECB's Macroprudential Bulletin. The Bulletin starts with the macroprudential effects of the EU-wide bank stress testing exercise. The first chapter of the Bulletin...

Since the financial crisis, the concept of macroprudential policy has progressively gained ground. The aim of macroprudential policy is to increase the resilience of individual financial institutions and of the financial system as a whole. It is also used to smooth out the financial cycle,...

This paper employs fifteen dynamic macroeconomic models maintained within the European System of Central Banks to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in European countries. Using a set of common simulations, we consider transitory and permanent shocks to government expenditures and different...

This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework with sign restrictions to study the effects of fundamental macroeconomic shocks on inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model...

This paper demonstrates how the real-time forecasting accuracy of different Brent oil price forecast models changes over time. We find considerable instability in the performance of all models evaluated and argue that relying on average forecasting statistics might hide important information on...

I study economies where banks do not fully internalize the social costs of default, which distorts their lending decisions. In all these economies, a common general equilibrium effect leads to aggregate over-investment. As a result, under laissez-faire, crises are too frequent and too costly...