This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a "rule of thumb" for predicting changes in unemployment, as a result of changes in output. It argues that a disaggregated version of the Okun relationship - making use of the differential reaction of unemployment to changes in the...

Two seemingly unconnected empirical results suggest an intriguing mechanism. First, economic integration helps harmonize prices internationally, with trade being the primary channel (Rogoff 1996, Goldberg and Knetter 1997). Second, monetary union may greatly increase the amount of trade among...

This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a “rule of thumb” for predicting changes in unemployment, as a result of changes in output. It argues that a disaggregated version of the Okun relationship – making use of the differential reaction of unemployment to changes in...

This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty...

Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market...

The long-run determinants of euro area FDI to the United States during the period 1980-2001 are explained by employing the Tobin's Q-model of investment. By using the fixed effects panel estimator, stock market developments in the euro area countries - including a measure adjusted for economic...

Overall, the paper underlines the difficulties in spelling out the transmission and the final effects of external shocks on the euro area, and highlights the complexity of the various direct and indirect mechanisms. We describe the main channels by which potential spillovers from external...

This paper estimates an import demand function for the euro area vis--vis its main extra-area trading partners which takes into account the possible impact of both intra- and extra-euro area exchange rate uncertainty. We derive a theoretical model which captures various mechanisms by which...

This paper uses a model of import prices whereby exporters to the euro area set export prices partly as a mark-up on their production costs (i.e., the degree of exchange rate pass-through) and partly in line with euro area producer prices (i.e., pricing-to-market). Using both time series and...

The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the key determinants of intra- and extra-euro area imports. Using a simultaneous equation estimation framework, and pooling the data across nine euro area countries as an approximation of the euro area, we estimate intra- and extra-euro...