This paper exploits a unique cross-country, firm-level survey to study the responses of European firms to the sharp demand and credit contraction triggered by the global Great Recession of 2009. The analysis reveals that cost reduction-particularly labour cost reduction through the adjustment of...

This report has been prepared to provide a general overview and assessment of the performance of the Portuguese economy under the EU/IMF adjustment programme and the remaining challenges ahead. Portugal's recent exit from the Programme implied the lapsing of the 12th and final review of...

Between the start of the economic and financial crisis in 2008, and early 2010, almost four million jobs were lost in the euro area. Employment began to rise again in the first half of 2011, but declined once more at the end of that year and remains at around three million workers below the...

The Great Recession and the subsequent European crisis may have long-lasting effects on aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and, hence, on macroeconomic performance over the medium and long-run. Besides the fact that financial crisis last longer and are succeeded by slower recoveries, and apart...

I study economies where banks do not fully internalize the social costs of default, which distorts their lending decisions. In all these economies, a common general equilibrium effect leads to aggregate over-investment. As a result, under laissez-faire, crises are too frequent and too costly...

In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity in the euro area by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty...

A financial stress index for the United States is introduced -an index that was used in real time by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board to monitor the financial crisis of 2008-9 and the interaction with real activity, inflation and monetary policy is demonstrated using a richly parameterized...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation were largely unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the third quarter of 2024), although expectations for 2025 were revised downwards slightly. Headline...