Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expertforecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectionaldispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreementabout real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a...

This paper examines the impact of downward wage rigidity (nominal and real) onoptimal steady-state inflation. For this purpose, we extend the workhorse model ofErceg, Henderson and Levin (2000) by introducing asymmetric menu costs for wagesetting. We estimate the key parameters by simulated...

This paper examines the usefulness of the Okun relationship as a "rule of thumb" for predicting changes in unemployment, as a result of changes in output. It argues that a disaggregated version of the Okun relationship - making use of the differential reaction of unemployment to changes in the...

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an "activity sentiment score" based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff...

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between...

This paper analyses price formation in medium- to longer-term maturity segments of euro area and US inflation-linked and nominal bond markets around the releases of important economic indicators.We compare the pre-crisis and crisis periods, controlling for liquidity effects observed in financial...

This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers' inflation expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers' inflation expectations capture the broader...

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher...

We consider a simple extension of the basic new-Keynesian setup in which we relaxthe assumption of frictionless financial markets. In our economy, asymmetricinformation and default risk lead banks to optimally charge a lending rate above therisk-free rate. Our contribution is threefold. First,...

The increasing weight of open market transactions in central bank operations and the widening use of purchase agreements underlines a progress towards convergence of monetary policy instruments and procedures in EU countries. This paper presents a survey of features of open market operations...