Showing 1 - 10 of 158
FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015321745
We use a Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH (STCC-GARCH) model applied to the euro area monetary policy … above which the sovereign bond market moves to a crisis regime. We show that the threshold to a crisis regime for Italy and … amount to 120-130 basis points or (iii) the 5-year spread between the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) bond and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301870
This paper explores the link between agent expectations and housing market dynamics. We focus on shifts in the fundamental driving forces of the economy that are anticipated by rational forward-looking agents, i.e. news shocks. Using Bayesian methods and U.S. data, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015298678
The global financial crisis rapidly spread across borders and financial markets, and also distressed EU bond markets … sovereign bond markets using a factor-augmented version of the VAR model in Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). We then provide a novel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301939
interventions succeeded in reducing yields and volatility of government bond segments of the countries under the programme. Finally … bias downwards the correlation between yields and the amounts of bonds purchased. Simple regression of daily changes in … Programme and sovereign bond quotes to address the endogeneity issues. We propose an econometric model that considers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015302475
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015308362
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015301930
The ECB has collected data on the unrealised losses of significant institutions under its direct supervision with a view to enhancing the assessment of risk in the held-to-maturity portfolios of euro area banks and to furthering its monitoring of interest rate risk and liquidity risk.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015323887
This paper investigates the dynamics of aggregate wages and prices in the UnitedStates (US) and the Euro Area (EA) with a special focus on persistence of real wages,wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural vector errorcorrectionmodel, where the structural shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866514
Forecasting the world economy is a di¢ cult task given the complex interre-lationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number ofapproaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic vari-ables and aims, …rst, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866572