The paper discusses the problem related to seasonal adjustment of euro area short term statistics, with the implications of the availability of member states data at the end of the sample, the alternative strategies to derive the aggregate index and the recommendations of the ESS Guidelines on...

In the paper we introduce a system for statistical detection of turning points in the euro area based on the class of multivariate Markov-switching models. Component series considered in the application are monthly short term statistics released by Eurostat, business and consumer surveys...

This paper extends the methodology for a simultaneous detecting of business and growth cycle, already developed for the euro area, to its major member countries. The best performing indicators for each country are identified through a simulation exercise. An indirect pair of turning point...

The establishment of common guidelines for seasonal adjustment within the European Statistical System is an essential step towards a better harmonisation and comparability of infra-annual statistics. Following the 2009 and 2015 editions which were widely accepted and implemented, the 2024...

The purpose of this work consists in evaluating changes in the quality performances of two different and widely used programs for seasonal adjustment, X-12-Regarima and Tramo-Seats, when the length of time series is progressively reduced. The comparisons are carried-out by using appropriate and...

The establishment of common guidelines for seasonal adjustment (SA) within the European Statistical System (ESS) is an essential step towards a better harmonisation and comparability of infra-annual statistics, especially Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs). The ESS Guidelines on...

The HICP Methodological Manual represents a comprehensive overview of methods that are used in the compilation process for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The manual intends to be a practical guide to all steps necessary to produce an HICP and is thus useful for statisticians who...

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non-parametric dating methodology, allows...

In this paper we test whether globalisation has affected the relationship between the output gap and inflation in the euro area. Then we investigate how the traditional Phillips Curve relating the inflation and the domestic output gap can be enhanced incorporating globalisation effects. We...